Table of Contents:
  • Cover Contents Preface Acknowledgements About the Author
  • 1 Predicting the Future is a Necessary Part of Business
  • 2 Previous Predictions have been Accurate
  • 2.1 Introduction
  • 2.2 There have been Huge Changes in the Telecoms Climate
  • 2.3 What we Predicted for the Period 2000 2005
  • 2.4 How Well did we do?
  • 2.5 Our Predictions for 2005 2010
  • 2.6 How Good do these Predictions Look Now?
  • 2.7 Implications for Forecasting the Future
  • 3 How to put Together a Forecast
  • 4 The Current Position
  • 4.1 The Value of a Good Understanding of the Starting Position
  • 4.2 Mobile Communications
  • 4.2.1 Cellular
  • 4.2.2 Private Mobile Radio
  • 4.2.3 Mobile Mesh Systems
  • 4.2.4 Cognitive Radio
  • 4.3 Fixed wireless
  • 4.3.1 Introduction
  • 4.3.2 Key Drivers for Fixed Wireless
  • 4.3.3 Key Competitors to Fixed Wireless
  • 4.3.4 Likely Success of Fixed Wireless
  • 4.3.5 Enlarging the Market with a Nomadic Offering
  • 4.3.6 The Prognosis for Fixed Wireless
  • 4.4 Short-range Devices
  • 4.4.1 Introduction
  • 4.4.2 Overview of the Standards for Short-range Devices
  • 4.4.3 Ultra Wideband (UWB)
  • 4.4.4 Wireless LANs [5]
  • 4.4.5 BlueTooth [6]
  • 4.4.6 DECT
  • 4.4.7 Zigbee
  • 4.4.8 RFIDs
  • 4.4.9 The Prognosis for Short-range Devices
  • 4.5 Core Networks
  • 4.6 Broadcasting
  • 4.6.1 Conventional Broadcasting
  • 4.6.2 Mobile Broadcasting
  • 4.7 Industry Structure
  • 4.8 Summary
  • 4.9 Appendix: The Role for OFDM
  • OFDM is Increasingly in Favour
  • A Quick Introduction to OFDM
  • Multipath: the Key Difference between OFDM and SCM
  • Equalisers may become too Complex to be Realisable
  • Problems Specific to OFDM
  • Specific Applications
  • So is OFDM the New Technology of Choice?
  • References
  • 5 End User Demand
  • 5.1 Why What the User Wants is Critical
  • 5.2 How People React to New Concepts
  • 5.3 Changing Patterns of Spending
  • 5.4 What they have Today
  • 5.5 What they want Now
  • 5.6 Security, Privacy and Health Concerns
  • 5.7 The Handset Subsidy Problem
  • 5.8 In Summary
  • 6 Technology Progress
  • 6.1 Technology is a Critical Input to any Forecast
  • 6.2 Key Technical Fundamentals: The True Laws
  • 6.3 Key Technical Observations: The Empirical Laws
  • 6.3.1 Moore s Law
  • 6.3.2 Metcalfe s Law
  • 6.3.3 Gilder s Law
  • 6.3.4 Cooper s Law
  • 6.3.5 Edholm s Law
  • 6.3.6 Growth in Disk Size
  • 6.3.7 Goodhart s Law
  • 6.3.8 Laws or Trends?
  • 6.4 Technologies on the Radar Screen
  • 6.4.1 Technologies Enhancing the Efficiency of Transmission
  • 6.4.2 Technologies Lowering Cost: Backhaul
  • 6.4.3 Technologies Enhancing Interaction with Terminals
  • 6.4.4 Technologies Leading to Artificial Intelligence
  • 6.4.5 Compression Technologies
  • 6.5 Technology Prognosis: No Key Breakthroughs
  • 6.6 Implications for the Future
  • References
  • 7 Major World Events
  • 7.1 Introduction
  • 7.2 World Events
  • 7.3 Events in Related Industries
  • 7.4 Summary
  • 7.5 The Next Chapters